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151.
José Ma. Martí Juan A. Miralles José Ma. Ibánez Luis Herrera 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1990,168(2):305-316
We have derived the equations which govern the linear nonadiabatic general-relativistic radial oscillations. The perturbation produces a heat flux that is coupled with the geometry, through the Einstein field equations of a stellar configuration. The classical limit is recovered. The stability conditions are examined by means of a simplified one-zone model. 相似文献
152.
Influence of rock‐pool characteristics on the distribution and abundance of inter‐tidal fishes 下载免费PDF全文
Rock pools can be found in inter‐tidal marine environments worldwide; however, there have been few studies exploring what drives their, fish species composition, especially in Australia. The rock‐pool environment is highly dynamic and offers a unique natural laboratory to study the habitat choices, physiological limitations and adaptations of inter‐tidal fish species. In this study rock pools of the Sydney region were sampled to determine how the physical (volume, depth, rock cover and vertical position) and biological (algal cover and predator presence) parameters of pools influence fish distribution and abundance. A total of 27 fish species representing 14 families was observed in tide pools at the four study locations. The five most abundant species were Bathygobius cocosensis, Centropogon australis, Enneapterygius atrogulare, Lepidoblennius haplodactylus and Microcanthus strigatus, which together represented 71% of the total number of fish recorded. Larger rock pools containing more algal and rock ledge cover hosted a larger and more diverse population of fish. Furthermore, certain species were only found in pools with specific characteristics, such as the presence of loose shells, a variety algae or rock cover, suggesting a high degree of habitat specificity. By contrast, some species were ubiquitous and thus can likely tolerate a wide variety of physical conditions. 相似文献
153.
Robust projections of Fire Weather Index in the Mediterranean using statistical downscaling 总被引:2,自引:2,他引:0
J. Bedia S. Herrera D. San Martín N. Koutsias J. M. Gutiérrez 《Climatic change》2013,120(1-2):229-247
The effect of climate change on wildfires constitutes a serious concern in fire-prone regions with complex fire behavior such as the Mediterranean. The coarse resolution of future climate projections produced by General Circulation Models (GCMs) prevents their direct use in local climate change studies. Statistical downscaling techniques bridge this gap using empirical models that link the synoptic-scale variables from GCMs to the local variables of interest (using e.g. data from meteorological stations). In this paper, we investigate the application of statistical downscaling methods in the context of wildfire research, focusing in the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), one of the most popular fire danger indices. We target on the Iberian Peninsula and Greece and use historical observations of the FWI meteorological drivers (temperature, humidity, wind and precipitation) in several local stations. In particular, we analyze the performance of the analog method, which is a convenient first choice for this problem since it guarantees physical and spatial consistency of the downscaled variables, regardless of their different statistical properties. First we validate the method in perfect model conditions using ERA-Interim reanalysis data. Overall, not all variables are downscaled with the same accuracy, with the poorest results (with spatially averaged daily correlations below 0.5) obtained for wind, followed by precipitation. Consequently, those FWI components mostly relying on those parameters exhibit the poorest results. However, those deficiencies are compensated in the resulting FWI values due to the overall high performance of temperature and relative humidity. Then, we check the suitability of the method to downscale control projections (20C3M scenario) from a single GCM (the ECHAM5 model) and compute the downscaled future fire danger projections for the transient A1B scenario. In order to detect problems due to non-stationarities related to climate change, we compare the results with those obtained with a Regional Climate Model (RCM) driven by the same GCM. Although both statistical and dynamical projections exhibit a similar pattern of risk increment in the first half of the 21st century, they diverge during the second half of the century. As a conclusion, we advocate caution in the use of projections for this last period, regardless of the regionalization technique applied. 相似文献
154.
Large biases and inconsistent climate change signals in ENSEMBLES regional projections 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Marco Turco Antonella Sanna Sixto Herrera Maria-Carmen Llasat José Manuel Gutiérrez 《Climatic change》2013,120(4):859-869
In this paper we analyze some caveats found in the state-of-the-art ENSEMBLES regional projections dataset focusing on precipitation over Spain, and highlight the need of a task-oriented validation of the GCM-driven control runs. In particular, we compare the performance of the GCM-driven control runs (20C3M scenario) with the ERA40-driven ones (“perfect” boundary conditions) in a common period (1961–2000). Large deviations between the results indicate a large uncertainty/bias for the particular RCM-GCM combinations and, hence, a small confidence for the corresponding transient simulations due to the potential nonlinear amplification of biases. Specifically, we found large biases for some RCM-GCM combinations attributable to RCM in-house problems with the particular GCM coupling. These biases are shown to distort the corresponding climate change signal, or “delta”, in the last decades of the 21st century, considering the A1B scenario. Moreover, we analyze how to best combine the available RCMs to obtain more reliable projections. 相似文献
155.
156.
Perceptual models of uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems: a flood risk change example 总被引:2,自引:2,他引:0
Characterizing, understanding and better estimating uncertainties are key concerns for drawing robust conclusions when analyzing changing socio-hydrological systems. Here we suggest developing a perceptual model of uncertainty that is complementary to the perceptual model of the socio-hydrological system and we provide an example application to flood risk change analysis. Such a perceptual model aims to make all relevant uncertainty sources – and different perceptions thereof – explicit in a structured way. It is a first step to assessing uncertainty in system outcomes that can help to prioritize research efforts and to structure dialogue and communication about uncertainty in interdisciplinary work. 相似文献